Normally I don’t even talk about weather 10 days away. But with social media and weather enthusiasts sharing worst case scenarios on Facebook, sometimes I need to comment on things I would normally leave behind the scenes. It’s not that I enjoy keeping secrets from you but forecast error magnifies over time so forecasting over a week in advance has little skill/accuracy (to be honest).
There are some rumors swirling about Hurricane Jose hitting New York in ten days. Don’t buy into the hype. It’s not impossible but the probability of that happening is still really low.
Jose is a category 2 hurricane that will continue to experience weakening as it meanders northeast of the Bahamas over the next couple of days. The storm is forecast to move in a clockwise loop (getting chased by high pressure). Then after 4-5 days our confidence on what this storm does next drops dramatically. Does this storm then curve northwest harmlessly out to sea? Or does Jose take a closer pass to the east coast? There are some solutions that have Jose impacting our weather 8-10 days from now. I’m not buying it yet for many reasons including it’s just too soon.
We always keep a close eye on storms in this position. But there are too many variables right now including storm shear and Jose moving over its own wake. I’m not even confident in how strong the storm will be 4-5 days from now let alone WHERE it will be.
Bottom Line: Don’t worry about Jose yet. But keep an eye open for updates as we head towards the weekend.