HARTFORD, Conn. — It is called the case fatality rate. It is different than the overall mortality rate, which we still don’t know.
the case fatality rate is simply the number of people who have died in Connecticut, divided by the number of people who were tested and confirmed to have the virus-- and as you can see, that percentage has been steadily increasing since March.
One expert at Hartford Health Care said that is because the first wave of the virus amongst the general population came before a more distinct and severe spread amongst the most vulnerable.
“The second part of the mortality is the nursing homes and assisted living, they caught up late in the sense if you track back the history from the beginning our fatality or the case rate was high in the community - that affected the hospitals - and then after that the nursing homes -so there was a curve like this and nursing homes comes like that,” said Dr. Ajay Kumar, Chief Clinical Officer, Hartford Healthcare.
On May 14th, the case fatality rate went above 9 percent, and has not dropped below it since although Doctor Ajay Kumar said a drop should be coming soon.
“It’s always a slow decline, so there’s a plateau piece and after, the decline occurs,” Kumar said, “So over the time, over the next week or two I think you will see a decline, a significant decline, actually, in the mortality rate over the time. I hate to say those individuals who have been sicker who aren’t going to make it will not make it by then.”
Now, again, the chart shows only the percentage of people who have been tested, most likely, there are thousands of people infected who get mild symptoms or no symptoms and don’t die.
So, factoring in everyone--- most estimates for the overall mortality rate are not 9 percent, but, rather, somewhere below one per cent although how far below will be crucial. The difference between one percent and, say, one tenth of one percent could be tens if not hundreds of thousands of American lives if the virus cannot be stopped.
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