HARTFORD, Conn. — This time of year, some people can't wait for fall, while others don't want summer to end.
Either way, the seasons will be changing soon, and with that will come the annual display of fall color across New England.
Jim Salge is Yankee Magazine's longtime foliage expert and a former meteorologist at New Hampshire's Mount Washington Observatory. We spoke with him last year when drought was the main driver of the outlook.
This year's situation couldn't be more opposite, with New England experiencing a very wet summer.
"I'm really concerned about the last two years, with the energy balance in the trees," Salge said, adding the swings from dry to wet can add stress to them.
Plus, there have been other weather events this year which are playing a role in his forecast. The first was February 4, when a bitter arctic cold snap pushed temperatures well below zero. The second was in mid-May when a late-season freeze stunted spring growth.
Then this summer arrived, with buckets of rain in July.
The rain has increased the risk of leaf fungus. Ironically, the February cold snap may have been a positive for fall color: it was so cold it took a toll on some invasive pests, including the spongy moth caterpillar, which feeds on foliage.
"The trees haven't had a great year with all the rain, but they haven't been chewed down by any caterpillars this year, and that's a good sign," Salge said.
As El Nino continues to have a greater impact on the weather pattern, Salge expects mild and wet conditions to linger into the fall. If we have a lack of cold nights, the peak color will be delayed.
However, this could mean a longer than usual period of nice color.
"We need those cool, crisp nights to really kickstart the color, and we need some bright sunshine to make them bright and bold," Salge said.
Last year's season brought a punch of vibrant reds. But this year, the pallet of colors will be more pastel in nature, with fewer flaming reds, that are "no less beautiful," due to the recent weather conditions, Salge said.
"I don't think it's going to be a very red year, with as much rain as we got, the sugars aren't going to be as strong in the leaves. I think we're in for a long season, and one that's more pastel than bright red," he added.
Salge expects patchy color to develop earlier than normal, beginning in swampy wetlands with the maples. Peak, more widespread color is expected to take longer to arrive, close to or perhaps a bit later than average. This translates to late September into the first week of October in the mountains of northern New England.
In Connecticut, color is forecast to expand beginning in the hills in early October, but taking until mid to late October for peak color to arrive in the Connecticut River Valley. Near and along the shoreline, it's possible to peak won't be until the first week in November. As long as there are no windstorms, the color should be long-lasting.
"The Litchfield Hills should have a really good year. There are some beautiful spots to go leaf-peeping around there. I love that corner of the state," Salge said.
He expects the best fall color in New England to be in northern Maine, Downeast areas toward Acadia, and in southern New England. It's likely the prolific rains in the mountains of Vermont and New Hampshire will have some impact, but Salge still expects a nice display of color there.
Ryan Breton is a meteorologist at FOX61 News. He can be reached at rbreton@fox61.com. Follow him on Facebook, X and Instagram.
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