HARTFORD, Conn. — Now that it's past Labor Day, it's time to think about fall, especially for those trying to plan a weekend escape to northern New England, or for those looking forward to the arrival of fall color here in southern New England.
We've already reported on how the drought is stressing trees. More vulnerable trees on less hardy soil are starting to go dormant.
There are three main drivers of color change: the loss of daylight, overnight low temperatures, and precipitation, which is the driving force for some leaves to change at this point in the year.
Going forward, it will be the loss of daylight and overnight low temperatures.
Jim Salge has been predicting New England's fall foliage for more than a decade in Yankee Magazine.
"Southern New England is definitely more of a struggle to predict this year," Salge said, as drought and warmth can have conflicting impacts on the foliage.
In a drought, color can often be early and brief.
In a warmer than normal year, it can delay the changeover.
We may see a bit of both in southern New England, with some stressed trees turning early, while others hold off, as temperatures are likely to remain warmer than average.
"Once they start to brown up or turn early from the drought, we are really past the point of no return," Salge said.
In northern New England, the drought has not been as severe. That's where the color should be more on schedule.
Salge forecasts peak color will begin in far northern New England, including the White Mountains of New Hampshire, in late September.
After that, its progression south may not be as fast.
Peak color is forecast in the hills of northwest and northeast Connecticut around the second week of October.
Closer to the Connecticut shoreline, it may take until after Halloween for peak color. However, some of the more stressed trees will change much earlier than that.
Just because southern New England is in a drought, doesn't mean the color won't be good in northern New England.
"One phrase we're using this year, and we're borrowing it from the ski industry, is the backyard effect. When there's no snow in southern New England, people don't travel up north to go ski. I think where the drought is less in northern New England, people are going to forget it could be a really good foliage year up here," Salge said.
Ryan Breton is a meteorologist at FOX61 News. He can be reached at rbreton@fox61.com. Follow him on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.
---
Have a story idea or something on your mind you want to share? We want to hear from you! Email us at newstips@fox61.com
---
HERE ARE MORE WAYS TO GET FOX61 NEWS
Download the FOX61 News APP
iTunes: Click here to download
Google Play: Click here to download
Stream Live on ROKU: Add the channel from the ROKU store or by searching FOX61.
Steam Live on FIRE TV: Search ‘FOX61’ and click ‘Get’ to download.