CONNECTICUT, USA — This winter in southern New England has been a wild ride so far. New Year's Day brought rain with temperatures in the 50s, followed by a late January blizzard, and record-breaking February warmth.
Now that it's March, you might be looking ahead, thinking about putting the shovels away and breaking out the golf clubs.
The spring season
We have two definitions for seasons. In the weather world, meteorological or climatological seasons are determined by temperature cycles. The coldest three-month period is winter. The warmest period is summer.
Meteorological spring is March, April, and May.
Then, the one on our calendars: Astronomical seasons, which are all about the position of the Earth in relation to the sun.
Astronomical spring begins this year on March 20, with the vernal equinox. That's the day when the sun's rays pass directly over the equator, and the Earth's axis tilts the northern hemisphere toward the sun.
Season of change
Spring is a season of change. It snows in March. On average, the last inch of snow falls on March 11 at the shoreline in Bridgeport. Naturally, it's later inland. In the Hartford area, the last inch of snow on average falls on March 23.
Late spring can often bring big heat to southern New England. However, there can be a big difference in temperature from the shore to the hills.
The first 90-degree day inland happens in mid-May on average, but it often takes until summer at the shoreline, thanks to that spring sea breeze.
The science behind this spring's outlook
This is what the average weather pattern looks like during a La Niña winter:
This is the temperature pattern this winter:
Looks a lot like La Niña, which is expected to linger for the next month or two, then forecast to transition into "La Nada," or near-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. That weakening of La Niña is expected to occur during either April or May.
There are some signs both in the long-range computer modeling and by using "analog" years (comparing this year's pattern to that of previous years) that the jet stream may favor a trough in the eastern U.S. during the month of April. That would translate to cooler than average temperatures.
It's pretty rare to have consistent, month-to-month colder than average weather these days. Climate change is a factor.
However, spring is actually our slowest-warming season in southern New England, so a sluggish transition from winter to summer is still very common.
The Climate Prediction Center suggests there's a reasonable chance for above-average temperatures here in Connecticut for the three-month period. We're thinking May has the best chance to run up the score.
Below is a look at the month's average temperature (average all the highs and lows together). March will likely come in near average. April is trending cooler than average. Then there's hope for May to come through with warmer than average weather.
What about precipitation?
That's a little cloudier.
The Climate Prediction Center is saying there are equal chances for above or below normal precipitation here in New England this spring. Basically, flip a coin.
There doesn't seem to be a strong signal we will have a wet or dry spring. Transitioning out of a La Niña pattern may be part of that.
So far this year, precipitation has been nearly average in the Hartford area. So, we're going to suggest that trend continues into spring. Unquestionably, there will be damp and wetter periods. The spring can be gloomy around here. However, we should land close to the 11 inches of precipitation that occur on average.
Seasonal forecasting is a challenge. When we give it a shot, we do our best but realize a little humility is needed. We don't have all the answers. Weather can and will do its thing between now and the end of the season.
The bottom line? I think a good theme is this spring will feel like we're taking one step forward, and two steps backward sometimes.
Shoulder seasons, spring and fall, can even be more challenging to predict than the winter and summer.
We'll see how it all ends up. In the meantime, stay with the FOX61 Weather Watch team. We have you covered, no matter the season.
Ryan Breton is a meteorologist at FOX61 News. He can be reached at rbreton@fox61.com. Follow him on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.
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