ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — Even though it's already August, we're still so early in the Atlantic hurricane season. The season peak doesn't happen until Sept. 10, so it's still important to be prepared now.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) updated 2023 hurricane season forecast stresses that point.
Back in late May, NOAA came out with its first forecast for the 2023 hurricane season just before the official June 1 state. Because weather conditions are always changing, scientists periodically reevaluate their forecasts and make changes as needed.
For example, hurricane researchers and scientists at Colorado State University recently increased their forecast numbers from the beginning of the season. The reason? Well-above-average sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic Basin.
On Thursday, NOAA released its updated forecast. Here's what's changed:
The latest numbers from NOAA predict 14-21 named storms, 6-11 hurricanes and 2-5 major hurricanes (Category 3 and higher). This is up from May's forecast of 12-17 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes and 1-4 major hurricanes.
That is an increase across the board from the early season forecast. NOAA now gives a 60-percent chance for an above-normal season, which is up from 30-percent odds back in May.
The biggest driving factors for this hurricane season's activity are at odds. Above-average, near-record warm ocean temperatures continue to be an indicator of above-average activity. On the other hand, a strengthening El Niño typically means more wind shear, which limits tropical development.
We are now in month three of hurricane season and so far, the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season has produced five total storms with one hurricane. Four of those storms have names with one storm being unnamed back in January. The next name on the list will be Emily.
Right now, the National Hurricane Center has no tropical development expected over the next seven days. While the next several days look calm some models are hinting at some tropical waves to watch off the coast of Africa by later in the month.