HARTFORD, Conn. — Last summer will be remembered for a long time as simply one word: wet.
From flooding rains to soaked weekends, it was challenging to get outdoor plans in as usual. July was the wettest on record with nearly 14 inches of rain.
People were also confronted with persistent plumes of wildfire smoke, especially in the month of June.
So, what will this summer bring? Some of the same players exist, while others are different.
El Niño to La Niña
Last summer was influenced by El Niño with warmer than average waters in the equatorial pacific. But this summer, a flip to La Niña is expected. This one factor can affect how weather circulates across the globe.
With less wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, it can be easier for tropical storms to organize.
Unfortunately, this may be magnified by yet another year of very warm water temperatures in the main development areas. Warm water acts like fuel for tropical storms. The combination of these two factors means that a busy hurricane season is very likely.
Severe weather
La Niña can also bring more severe weather outbreaks. As warm, humid air streams north from the Gulf of Mexico, it can provide the fuel needed to spark some nasty storms. This has already been seen through the spring months in the Plains and Deep South.
In southern New England, both the number of wind damage and large hail reports tend to be higher than average during La Niña summers, according to a study from the National Weather Service in Boston.
Severe weather season in the area can extend deeper into the fall, with warmer than average water temperatures nearby. This was seen in November 2021, also during a La Niña, with a late-season severe weather outbreak locally.
How wet?
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center is out with their summer predictions.
From the Gulf Coast up the eastern seaboard, odds are high for a wetter than average summer. That includes here in southern New England.
A repeat of last summer's deluge seems unlikely. But it's also unlikely there will be a serious drought.
In addition to weather patterns, the latest trends are also helpful when forecasting. The last six summers have been warmer than average.
The trend for warmer summers extends a lot longer than that. Over the last 50 years, the climate has been changing and summers have been getting warmer.
How warm?
The National Weather Service is forecasting above normal temperatures, especially honing in on New England, at least relative to normal.
Putting that together means a potentially hot and humid summer that is active with plenty of storms.
In addition to weather patterns, the latest trends are also helpful when forecasting. The last six summers have been warmer than average. The trend for warmer summers extends a lot longer than that, too.
Wildcard: Wildfire smoke?
It's not unusual to have a day or two each summer where wildfire smoke is noticeable in the sky.
But last year brought it to another level. It was a record wildfire season to our north in Canada. Smoke was present much of June, and a couple of days it was thick enough to block out the midday sun.
The spring fire season in Canada has gotten off to a fast start in Alberta and British Columbia.
Where the smoke goes depends on the weather pattern and jet stream flow. If the flow is directed from the source, toward us, wildfire smoke may pass through our sky. It seems like only a matter of time before at least some smoke and haze will be seen this summer.
Conclusion:
2024 looks like a warm and humid summer. It likely won't bring the epic rains of 2023, nor the extreme drought of 2022. This time, it may be something in between. Expect wet weather and storms at times but no signs of any serious drought.
The peak of hurricane season isn't until late summer when the tropics will be worth keeping an eye on.
No matter what the weather throws at us this year, the FOX61 weather watch team will be with you every step of the way.
Ryan Breton is a meteorologist at FOX61 News. He can be reached at rbreton@fox61.com. Follow him on Facebook, X and Instagram.
Rachel Frank is the chief meteorologist at FOX61 News. She can be reached at rfrank@fox61.com. Follow her on Facebook, X and Instagram.
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